Durant's Decision
As an Oklahoma City Thunder fan I knew this day would come, Kevin Durant is testing Free Agency and is set to sign a new contract. Where he'll sign remains to be clear, we all assume wherever Durant signs it'll likely only be a year long deal so that he can benefit from the salary cap rising next season (going from $70 million this season, to $94.1 million per team next year).
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
The Clippers took a solid run at him, describing the possibility of a 'big 4' to Durant, he would be playing alongside perennial All-Stars Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul, and also his 2016 USA Olympic teammate DeAndre Jordan. The opportunity to play under highly regarded Head Coach Doc Rivers is something that a lot of players in the NBA would snap up, Durant hasn't been blessed by playing for what we consider future Hall of Fame calibre coaches, having played under P.J Carlesimo on a bad Thunder squad who only won 22% of their 95 games with, Carlesimo in charge. Scotty Brooks who in turn coached OKC to win 62% of their 545 games with him in charge (though that largely had to do with the team's successful drafting of young talent) was let go in the summer of 2015. Billy Donovan who had a very successful coaching career in the college ranks for the past 20 years, these are all good coaches in their own right but Durant may be at a point in his career where he's looking to lean on a coach who has won a title in the NBA as a Head Coach, like Doc Rivers has. After the re-signing of guards Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford on July 3rd, to questionably large contracts, it would seem pretty evident that they themselves even feel like they're out of contention to land the #1 Free Agent. Rivers is set to make $35 million over the next 3 years ($11.6m/yr) and reigning Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford is going to be earning $42 million in the next 3 years in LA ($14m/yr).
6th most likely
MIAMI HEAT
The Heat would be next on my 'least likely to sign him' list. First and foremost Miami re-signed their young center, Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside inked a deal that's believed to be worth $98 million over 5 years ($19.6m/yr), but other than that Miami are yet to make more than that one positive move since free agency started on July 1st. Dwyane Wade, who has spent all 13 of his NBA seasons playing for Miami, is exploring Free Agency after being disappointed in the contract he was offered in south beach. Luol Deng who has only played 2 seasons for the Heat has just signed for the LA Lakers. The Heat's Tyler Johnson, who had a break-out season this year, was offered on July 3rd a $50 million deal that lasts four years (12.5m/yr) with the Brooklyn Nets. Miami, who own Johnson's 'Gilbert Arenas Provisional', have 3 days to match Brooklyn's offer sheet otherwise Johnson will become a member of the Nets. The likelihood is that Miami won't match the offer made and will be forced to let him go. The appeal for Durant to come isn't enough to warrant him committing his future, with the current roster the Heat aren't a team who are going to be challenging for a championship, if Wade leaves they'll more than likely be challenging for a Playoff berth.
5th most likely
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
The Spurs are contenders for a championship, year in and year out, and that must be appealing to someone like Durant, who is considered a top 5 player in the league but is yet to win an elusive title. The biggest question for me in this situation would be, how well would Durant, someone who is heavily regarded as an isolation player, bode on a team that is noted for their selflessness and ball movement? Being the focal point of the Thunder's offence for the last 9 years Durant has had the 'green light' to shoot whenever, and wherever he has been on the court. Maybe Durant is ready to give up on the iso plays are become a 'system player'? In a San Antonio system he'd still thrive and have lots of open shots. The knock on the Spurs is the age of some of their key players, we know Kawhi Leonard is a 25 year old star who continues to improve season by season and that LaMarcus Aldridge is a proven 30 year old who looks to have a lot of good years still in him. Manu Ginobli, and Tim Duncan, who've both spent their entire NBA careers at San Antonio look ready to retire after the 2016/2017 season. Two of the key players who have been a large reason for the Spurs' prolonged success over the last 14 seasons will no longer be there, and I do think that slightly hinders Durant's chances of going. San Antonio are in no way in need of a 'rebuild', or anything to that effect, but I feel like if Durant was leaving to purely to have more opportunities to win a title he'd stand more of a chance on a team like the Warriors, and the Thunder.
4th most likely
BOSTON CELTICS
The Boston Celtics have thrown a spanner in the works for a lot of people, with the roster they had last season Boston were projected to finish the season as the 9th or 10th seed in the Eastern Conference, but they surprised a lot of people by playing consistently great basketball throughout the course of the year and finishing 5th, 1 win away from finishing 3rd. The play of point guard Isaiah Thomas was mesmerising at times, along with the lock-down defence of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, the Celtics deserved all the praise they got. Brad Stevens has shown why he's been quickly regarded as one of the best Head Coaches in the league, his savvy demeanor and play-by-play decisions helped shape the outcome of their season, whilst simultaneously grabbing the attention, and respect, of veteran Head Coaches like Greg Popovich (Spurs), and Rick Carlisle (Mavericks). Celtics have made it clear that they're done rebuilding, and are ready to take the next step and compete for a title, that's been shown with the drafting of 19 year old small forward Jaylen Brown in this year's NBA Draft, along with the acquisition of 4-time All-Star center Al Horford. It's to be noted that Durant has been trying to recruit Horford to come to Oklahoma City and join the Thunder with him. Durant is clearly a fan of Horford so it's a clever move by Boston to try and tempt Durant in with the chance of playing together, whether it will work is yet to be seen, but a good move from Boston regardless.
3rd most likely
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The Warriors, a similar argument could be made for Golden State Warriors as I made for the Spurs, Warriors are another team who like to have a lot of ball movement, although unlike the Spurs they do have players, Steph Curry and Klay thompson, who excel in isolation situations. Harrison Barnes looks set to leave the Bay Area and go on to become a main contributor on another team, which works out perfectly for the Warriors' chances of luring Durant. Making it all the way to the NBA Finals the last 2 years, winning a championship in the 2014/2015 season against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and then in turn falling short in the 2015/2016 season against the same Cavaliers. A rivalry is starting to develop that we hope could one day emulate the Magic Johnson led LA Lakers against Larry Bird led Boston Celtics of the 80s, or the Isiah Thomas led Detroit Pistons, against the Michael Jordan led Chicago Bulls of the late 80s and early 90s. Everyone wants to be a part of history, Kevin Durant is hungry for titles and in my opinion Warriors are certainly a team that have shown they're after the same goal, the team is young and extremely talented, if Durant chose to sign for GSW they would be, in most people's eyes, virtually unstoppable. I'd consider them very much in contention to sign the former MVP.
2nd most likely
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
The Thunder are the most likely to re-sign Durant, for a few reasons. They were one game away from playing in the NBA Finals this season, they had the Warriors on the ropes, down 3-1, but couldn't find a way to close it out and eventually lost 4-3. That left a sour taste in the mouth of all the players on the Oklahoma roster but Durant and Westbrook especially, having 31.9% and 32.6% respective Usage Percentage. Two of the three highest USG% for both rosters during the WCFs, meaning those two had the ball in their hands, dictating the play action for the majority of all 7 games, which subsequently means they are primarily going to be the ones who receive the blame from critics, even though they posted incredible personal stats (Durant - 30ppg, 8rpg, 3apg, 1.7spg. Westbrook - 26.7ppg, 7rpg, 11.3apg, 3.7spg). The pairing of the two superstars clearly works, having gone to the Western Conference Finals 4 times out of the last 6 years, and the 2 where they didn't make it was heavily due to injuries to both Durant and Westbrook. The emergence of Steven Adams in the 2016 Playoffs must be an appealing prospect for Durant looking forward. As Serge Ibaka has shied away from what he once brought to the team Thunder GM Sam Presti felt it was the right time to part ways with the Congolese power forward, trading him on Draft night to the Orlando Magic and in turn receiving up-and-coming combo guard Victor Oladipo, seasoned forward Ersan İlyasova, and the draft rights to newly drafted Domantas Sabonis from Gonzaga University. The Thunder are continually in the race for a championship, with the new additions and the potential of Victor Oladipo being able to take pressure off of Durant and Westbrook by being able to create his own shots, something that Ibaka couldn't do, things are looking more promising in Oklahoma. Talented players isn't the only reason I see Durant signing, the monetary side of the game will factor into his final decision, and he stands to earn more money by signing a one year deal with the Thunder this year and then re-signing next season when the increased salary cap comes into action. Durant has the potential to earn $228+ million in the next 6 years if he decides to stay in Oklahoma, signing for the $26,540,000 one year max, then signing for a further 5 year $202,358,125 in Free Agency this time next year, with that Durant would be earning a cool $40,471,625 per year. He has come out and said his decision will be based purely on a basketball view. I personally think it's going to be an incredibly close call, but I feel the familiarity of Oklahoma will just edge it. That, and the fact no one likes moving...
Most likely
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