Stipe Miocic (C) vs Junior dos Santos 2 - Heavyweight
This promises to be another great matchup between the two big strong orthodox strikers. The first time these two giants met, back in 2014, they won Fight of the Night honours, the likelihood of them doing so on this stacked card is once again high. Both fighters are 6'4" tall, but Miocic has a 3" reach advantage over his Brazilian counterpart.
Heavyweight strikers don't get much better than these two, both fighters throw a lot of punches, both landing around 5 significant strikes per minute. Unlike a lot of heavyweights they're both active throughout the rounds but they don't gas themselves out early. Oftentimes a big puncher will try and finish it as early as possible, if they can't find the knockout they tend to get tired and sloppy, so subsequently costing them the round, or the fight. There isn't a worry of that happening in this bout, neither fighter lands big combinations, instead they throw heavy hands. Look for JDS to slip Miocic's jab and try throw a big overhand right. In turn Miocic is looking to faint a left jab to set up his straight right as much as possible.
It's going to be important for JDS to win the clinch, when the fighters are up close and personal he has to dominate Stipe with his big knees, as well as his dirty boxing and make Miocic try and take him down. Miocic shot for a lot of takedowns in the first meeting and wasn't hugely successful with them.
Both of these fighters are very chinny, can take a clubbing blow and carry on. Miocic doesn't move his head all that well, he slips the jab with good footwork and then trusts his guard and the resistance of his chin, JDS needs to be patient and pick his shots to get him through the guard.
Miocic likes to cut off the octagon and have his opponent up against the cage so he can unleash his unyielding power, Dos Santos is very good when pressed against the cage, he gets his under hooks in high and tight and doesn't let his opponent get clean shots away. Stipe however is excellent at picking his punches when he has his opponent against the cage, he takes his time and picks apart the guard, landing solid, painful shots. If the fight goes to the ground look for Miocic to land devastating hammer fists after he passes the guard, just like how he finished Alistair Overeem.
In the first matchup Miocic's cardio came into question in the 5th round, this time around he's a touch lighter, his cardio looks better. I think he'll be sharper to start the fight and be able to carry on performing at his best late on to be able to help him win, and retain his title.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk (C) vs Jéssica Andrade - Strawweight
One of the most exciting match ups on the card, yet to be beaten Joanna Jędrzejczyk is facing the #3 ranked Strawweight fighter in Jéssica Andrade, it's sure to be an exhilarating title fight. Similar to Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos this is another fight between two strikers.
Joanna has been likened to UFC legend Chuck Liddell with her sprawl-and-brawl tactics, throwing masses of strikes. Jabs to the head and body, low kicks to the thigh and midsection, waiting for her opponent to make a mistake defensively so she can capitalise on it. I personally see more of a José Aldo style about her though, she's very calculated, cuts off the octagon well and chooses her shots masterfully. Her footwork and distance management allow her to land punches and be back out of the way before taking a punch herself. She stays behind her jab well and will be looking to use her 3" reach advantage to keep her distance. Andrade absorbs almost 5 significant strikes per minute, against some fighters she might be able to get away with that, against the undefeated champion she must cover up better and fight within the clinch with her dirty boxing to avoid the long piercing jabs of Jędrzejczyk.
If this fight gets taken to the ground the odds of Andrade winning skyrocket, her best chance of winning comes from her excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, she can trade knees, elbows, and kicks with relative ease but her boxing ability isn't as good as Jędrzejczyk's. Her best option is to take the fight to the canvas, if she can lock in one of her deadly submissions she stands a very good chance of walking out of Dallas with the Strawweight title belt fastened tightly around her waist.
The keys to takedown defence are balance, angles, and weight distribution, Jędrzejczyk does all of these things to an elite level, but will that be enough to stop the constant pressure from Andrade? We'll find out tonight. It would be nonsensical for Jędrzejczyk to shoot for takedowns tonight, unless she gets rocked with a heavy hand and is in survival mode.
I don't see there being an upset here at all, I think Joanna's unblemished 13-0 record will climb to 14-0 after tonight's bout, her stand up game is going to prove to be too much for Andrade.
Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal - Welterweight
This fight sees the #3 ranked welterweight Maia fighting the very experienced #5 ranked welterweight in Masvidal, the winner of this fight may go on to receive a title fight off of this victory. This is a clash of styles, striker vs submissions expert.
Masvidal is known for his striking ability, landing over 4 significant strikes on his opponents per minute. He'll be looking to use his 2" reach advantage to strike and keep his distance so that he's not giving Maia an opportunity for a takedown. Though Maia dodges punches well with his stand up defence will he be able to withstand Jorge's motor and amount of punches thrown?
Maia takes the back of his opponents very well, with 7 of his 12 submissions coming by rear-naked choke. That being said Maia is an excellent tactician on the ground and has the ability to lock in a submission out of nowhere. He's a 4th degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and will be looking to use his floor expertise to conjure up a victory.
Both fighters try a lot of takedowns, Masvidal doesn't shoot for as many takedowns as Maia does but his accuracy is a lot higher than his opponent's, 61% as opposed to 31%. Most of Masvidal's fight go the distance, there's no question he has the motor to withstand all 3 rounds, he has gone the distance in 3 of his last 5 fights. He also has the ability to finish a fight which he proved in his most recent fight, he beat fan favourite 'Cowboy' Donald Cerrone by TKO (punches) after knocking Cerrone down twice.
I'm looking at a Maia win via submission to be the outcome, his resilience and consistent takedowns attempts will prove to be too much for Masvidal to subdue, allowing him various opportunities to submit Jorge.
Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez - Featherweight
Personally this is the bout I'm looking most forward to, Yair Rodriguez is the most exciting young talent the UFC has to offer, looking to ruin his night is UFC veteran Frankie Edgar.
Rodriguez is an explosive striker, as well as having the ability to takedown an opponent and submit them on the ground. He has the ability to land a kick from anywhere with great accuracy and power, followed up with a flurry of punches. Something to look out for with Rodriguez is his spinning back fist, if Edgar tries to throw hands and trade with Yair, instead of going to his elite wrestling ability he must be careful of the spinning back fist, it comes quick and sharp, and if it lands on the chin or the temple Frankie could be in a whole bunch of trouble.
Yair is coming off of a one-sided TKO victory against UFC veteran B.J Penn, Penn's glory days are very much a thing of the past having lost in his last 4 fights, so whilst this victory looks good on paper the victory shouldn't go to Rodriguez's head. Edgar maybe 11 years his elder but he hasn't missed a step, the only fighter he's lost to in the last 4 years is then-champion José Aldo.
Edgar's ability to stifle the athleticism of Rodriguez is what's going to be the difference maker tonight. If he can take his wrestling skills and apply them, get inside Rodriguez's jab and shoot the body for a take down, ground and pound is Frankie's best opportunity to win.
The big question for me is whether Rodriguez's motor can keep ticking, can his cardio keep up with Frankie's. Most of Edgar's wins have come by decision so he's proven time and again he has the cardio to go the distance in any fight. Rodriguez's cardio has to be on point to be able to get the victory. Yair defends the takedown well, but well enough to stop Frankie Edgar taking him down? If the fight goes into the 3rd round I'd look for Rodriguez's ability to get out of a ground and pound situation, Edgar is a black belt in BJJ which a lot of people forget. The longer the fight goes, the more it favours Edgar.
With a large 5" height advantage, 3" reach advantage, and 4" advantage in leg length for Rodriguez the leg length advantage maybe the greatest weapon in this fight. Both fighters land a lot of significant strikes, Yair landing more than 4 per minute, he also lands them at a good rate. Frankie shoots for a lot more takedowns than Rodriguez, as well as also defending the takedown better, that of course stems from Edgar's background from his college years where he was an NCAA Division 1 wrestler.
Though Edgar is the #2 ranked featherweight and Rodriguez is the ranked #7 I think Rodriguez will take the victory. Yair's fantastic Taekwondo is what I feel will help him win this fight, he's a black belt in Taekwondo meaning he attempts a lot of jumping and spinning kicks. His best chance at winning will come from distancing himself from Edgar and trying to the land those high kicks.
Krzysztof Jotko vs Dave Branch - Middleweight
Both of these fighters are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialists, #9 ranked middleweight Krzysztof Jotko against unranked Dave Branch.
This fight is a late addition to the main card, this was originally supposed to be on the prelims but got the call when the Cejudo and Pettis bout got cancelled after Cejudo sustained an injury in camp. Usually a fighter would've stepped in to face Pettis but with such a short amount of time before the event the UFC decided to pull the plug on the fight.
Jotko has an excellent 19-1 record, and currently has a 5 fight win streak. Jotko is 8 years younger than his opponent, will that favour him, or will it be a problem against the wily veteran, Branch. It should be noted that Jotko's only loss came via submission in 2014 against Magnus Cedenblad, who in fairness to Cedenblad is not exactly a prolific submissions expert, how will he fair against a fighter who trains with such a good team.
Branch trains under Renzo Gracie, from the legendary Gracie Family, who are synonymous with revolutionising Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The aging Branch has a 20-3 record, he has an impressive 10 fight win streak, in fact his only loss in his last 13 fights was suffered at the hands (or rather, the fists) of recently retired Anthony "Rumble" Johnson.
There's a 4" reach advantage for Branch, but the 9th ranked middleweight Jotko might not let that be a factor if he takes it to the ground. Both shoot for a lot of takedowns, Jotko defends the takedown excellently, and that is why I have him as the favourite to win. Jotko lands more significant strikes per minute but also leaves himself open to counter punches. Considering Branch's 71% defence against significant striking I'd look for Jotko to try and make this fight up close, fight within the clinch and try and take it to the floor as soon as possible.
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